21.11.2008

Stocks
Apparently, such collapse on equity market was not since crisis times 1929-1932гг. On Thursday investors dumped shares of some world's largest manufacturers and financial institutions, including General Motors, Ford Motor and Citigroup. Share index Standard and Poor's 500 has fallen to the lowest mark more than for ten years, and Dow Jones Industrial Average again has failed more than on 400 items after the markets were disappointed in hearings in the Congress, Detroit motor-car manufacturers devoted to the Big three, and in efforts of the state on stabilization of banks. The equity market has jumped up in the middle of the auctions after messages that the Senate basically has reached agreements on the administration bill on rescue of motor-car manufacturers. But when hopes of such succession of events have disappeared, the market has failed. Under the last messages, the Congress will not undertake any steps in this matter prior to the beginning of a December vacation. Intraday fluctuations evidently indicated, investors hoped for what decision of the government. On a game are millions jobs, not only at motorcar manufacturers, but also in the adjacent companies. Shares GM have grown on 9 cents, or 3,2 %, to 2,88, after takeoff to 4,00 during the auctions. Shares Ford Motor have risen in price for 13 cents, or 10 %, to 1,39. The Share index of blue chips Dow Jones Industrial Average has fallen to 444,99 items, or 5,56 %, to 7552,29 items, the lowest level since March, 2003. Wide share index Standard and Poor \'s has fallen to 54,14 items, or 6,71 %, to 752,44, the lowest level of closing since April, 14th, 1997. Hi-tech share index NASDAQ Composite has fallen to 70,30 items, or 5,07 %, to 1316,12.

In the meantime, the index of volatility of the market of the Chicago options exchange/Chicago Board Options Exchange/, known as a fear /index/, was closed on a record maximum. All levels of technical support up to intraday minima of 2002 have been punched and now from the technical point of view the market is in burnt territory. Levels of support are not present. The last minutes the auctions one more wave of serious sales from co-op share funds and funds of hedging which have been compelled to enter the market because of flow demand on a conclusion of means from clients was observed. Shares Citi have fallen in the price on 1,69, or 26 %, to 4,71, the lowest level of closing since March, 8th, 1993. Citi has lost more than 130 bln dollars from the end of September. Traders are afraid, that the falling cost of hypothec securities and other assets on balance Citi can become the beginning of a nightmare for bank. Credit-rating agency DBRS has informed, that landslide falling of a stock value of bank can push away counterparts of bank. Shares Bank of America have fallen in price on 14 % to 11,25$. Shares of exchange index fund Financial Select Sector SPDR which is a basket from shares of banks and credit institutions, have fallen on 1,13, or 11 %, to 9,39, the lowest level more than for 10-year-old history of fund. The Treasury decision/SSHA/to refuse the repayment of problem assets became the reason of the last round of sales of financial shares. As soon as the state has withdrawn the warranties under the repayment of these assets as the buyer of the last instance, all other buyers immediately and have inevitably disappeared.

Recommendations about trade S&P500. Trade on Thursday passed with fall in a range 820. Apparently on the day schedule the price on S&P500 still is below the important resistance at level of 1255.0 items 1051.0 of sliding average with the period 55 on the day schedule (the day schedule see), as possesses to price cut as trade still passes in frameworks of a long-term descending trend originating since July, 2007.

Sliding averages on indicator ADX on 4-hour schedule disperse in favor of decrease. Force of a trend thus increases and makes 44 items that indicates strengthening /the bear/ spirit in the market in short-term prospect. The negative moment for /bulls/ is now that fact, that the price for share index S&P500 is below sliding average with the period 55 on 4 hour schedule (level 875.00, see on 4 hour schedule) and it in short-term prospect will show resistance to the price. Lines Bollinger Bands on 4-hour schedule are developed downwards, as well as on the day schedule that indicates the further price cut in a near-term outlook, especially after breakdown of the bottom border of a range 835.

On the day schedule, indicator ADX indicates that sliding averages disperse in favor of decrease. Force of a trend has thus grown and makes 33 items that indicates strengthening of the descending tendency in the market. After following the results of the auctions on Thursday S&P500 has punched support at level of 770.0 items, most possibly further decrease to level of 720.0 items. Support levels: 720.0. Resistance levels: 770.0, 835.0, 875.0, 887.0, 907.50, 1008.0, 1051.0, 1068.0, 1202.0, 1255.0.

Bond market
Treasuries fell, with 10-year notes eroding the biggest weekly gain since the stock market crash of 1987, as Asian shares advanced and Standard & Poor's 500 futures rose.

Notes slid after Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said the central bank has limited room to cut interest rates and downplayed the risk of deflation. Yields rose from record lows, after the five-year rate dropped to levels not seen since 1954, as the gain in shares curtailed demand for the relative safety of sovereign debt.

Crude oil
Because of an economic crisis which has led on Thursday to the next wave of fall in prices on world equity markets, cost of futures for a crude oil has fallen in New York to the lowest for 3,5 years of significance. End of term of the circulation of the nearest, December contract has strengthened volatility, but hardly probable someone expects that the tendency in the petroleum market in the near future can be changed to the opposite. By results of the auctions on the New York commodity exchange /New York Mercantile Exchange, NYMEX/ the price easy low sulfur petroleum with delivery in December has fallen on 4$, or 7,5 %, to 49,62$ for barrel, the lowest level since May, 23rd, 2005. Within day the petroleum price fell to 48,50$ for barrel. The price of the January contract for a crude oil has fallen on 4,68$, or 8,7 %, to 49,42$ for barrel; already after hours the basic session, at the electronic auctions, the price of the January contract fell to 48,63$ for barrel. By results of the auctions at the London future Intercontinental exchange /IntercontinentalExchange, ICE/ the price of the January contract for a petroleum mix of mark Brent has decreased on 3,64$ to 48,08$ for barrel, the lowest significance since May 20, 2005. Though the December contract has punched is critical the important level 49,90$ for barrel, a minimum of 2007, in the beginning of the auctions, traders actively traded January contract which has done the same more close to market closing more interested. Many consider, that the price of the new nearest contract for petroleum will continue movement downwards because the bad news acting from economic front becomes more and more. The petroleum market still pays the big attention of a stock value, which is considered as a barometer of economic forecasts and the future demand for petroleum. Within day share index Dow Jones Industrial Average that was lifted on positive territory fell more low, and is closer to the end of the auctions has failed, after the Congress of the USA has rejected the program on rescue distressful auto build branches. As a result, index Dow Jones was closed by falling on 445 items to 7552. In the beginning of the auctions in New York

The Ministry of Labor of the USA has published data on a labor market. According to these data, the number of primary demands for the unemployment benefit has jumped up to a 16-year-old maximum, and the general number of primary and repeated demands has exceeded 4 million, a 25-year-old maximum. The petroleum market hardly depends on economic news and further will continue to follow shares. In this situation, the market of petroleum does not give great value to forecasts for the offer party. Predictably, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to a close of the year declares the next decrease in volumes of an oil recovery, but hardly it will be big enough to render appreciable affecting the market because cartel exhibiting countries are disturbed by decrease in own petroleum incomes and deepening of world recession. OPEC Member countries will meet for price development discussion on petroleum on November 29 in Cairo, and on December 17 in Algeria the next meeting of cartel will take place.

Recommendations about trade Crude Oil. The Petroleum price has decreased at the auctions on Thursday and still bargains within the limits of an intermediate term descending trend and is below sliding average with the period 55 on the day schedule (level 82.30) and it gradually decreases that is very negative factor for a petroleum price and possesses to the further falling of the price. The petroleum price has punched a line of a long-term ascending trend. The petroleum price bargains also below sliding average with the period 55 on the week schedule (level 108.40) which has started to be developed gradually downwards, that possesses to the further falling of the price in long-term prospect. On the day schedule, indicator ADX indicates that sliding averages disperse in favor of decrease. Force of a descending trend thus has grown for the last trading session and makes 47 items that indicates strengthening /a descending/ trend in the market.

On 4-hour schedule, indicator ADX indicates to us that sliding averages disperse in favor of decrease. Force of a trend thus grows and makes 39 items that indicates strengthening /the bear/ spirit in the market in short-term prospect. The negative factor for players on increase is at that, that the petroleum price bargains below sliding average with the period 55 on 4-hour schedule (level 57.50 see on 4-hour schedule) which will act now as resistance to the price in short-term prospect.

Lines Bollinger Bands on 4х the hour schedule are developed downwards, as well as on the day schedule that indicates that in the market most possibly further price cut in intermediate term prospect. While the petroleum price bargains below a minimum of this year (85.37), it possesses to the further decrease. The petroleum price bargains below sliding average with the period 55 on the week schedule (level 108.40). After /bears/ have punched support at level 50$ for barrel, most possibly further decrease in area of support 41$ for barrel where price consolidation most likely will begin. If it does not occur, we will see 25$ for barrel. Resistance levels: 50.0, 55.0, 57.50, 60.0, 68.50, 70.35, 77.27, 82.30, 92.60, 98.80, 108.40. Support levels: 41.0, 25.0.

Gold
For the first time for long, enough time interest to gold as to safer object for investments has prevailed over other factors in the market. On Thursday of the price of futures for gold contrary to the general trend on raw and equity markets have risen in price. By results of the auctions on COMEX, division of the New York commodity exchange /New York Mercantile Exchange, NYMEX/, the price of the December futures contract for gold has grown on 12,70$, or 1,7 %, to 748,70$ for troy ounce the Frightened market participants searched for safe harbor for investments, but this type of support hardly will exist long. Yellow metal has risen in price, despite strengthening of dollar and fear before a deflation, appeared in the market. Interest of investors to gold as to safer asset for investments has made on the market stronger impact, than concern a possible deflation that made negative impact on a value of gold recently.

Soon after hours the auctions on gold the price of December contract NYMEX for a crude oil has fallen on 2,99$, or 5,5 %, to 50,63$ for barrel, and the price of an index of US dollar at London future exchange ICE has grown more than on 0,8 %. The Share index of blue chips Dow Jones Industrial Average then was in a minus on 80,45 items on a mark 7916,83; by results of day the index was closed by decrease more than on 400 items. Though petroleum has fallen in price, and on equity, market there was a collapse, gold held the items, thanks to inflow of investments from the investors considering gold by safer financial instrument in the conditions of crisis. Gold prices could get support and thanks to that, some gold mining companies considered possibility of operational decrease in volumes of extraction.

Recommendations about trade (Gold). Sliding averages on indicator ADX on 4-hour schedule disperse in favor of increase. Force of a trend thus grows and makes 41.0 items that indicates strengthening /the bull/ spirit in the market in short-term prospect. The positive factor for /bulls/ is now at that, that the gold price bargains above sliding average with the period 55 on 4 hour schedule (level 741.6) which acts now as support to a gold price in short-term prospect (see on 4 hour schedule). Corridor Bollinger Band continues to be narrowed, both on the day schedule, and on 4-hour schedule, that indicates high probability of consolidation of the price in intermediate term prospect.

On day schedule, ADX indicates that sliding averages mutually decrease. Force of a trend thus continues to die away to die away and makes 16 items that indicates easing of the descending tendency. On the day schedule it is visible, that the gold price bargains below sliding average with period 55 (level 819.0), that while as a whole promotes the further price cut.

The gold price also still bargains below level 896.0$ for ounce where average passes sliding with the period 55 on the week schedule (see the week schedule) that promotes price falling in long-term prospect. In the circumstances, the gold price has considerably fallen and has reached supports at level 682.5. In case of its breakdown following the results of day most possibly, further decrease to support at level 640.0. As a whole in a near-term outlook, I expect continuation gold price consolidation in wide enough range 682. Support levels: 741.6, 720.0, 682.5, 640.0. Resistance levels: 770.0, 798.0, 819.0, 845.0, 896.0, 907.5.